PredictGuard

# PredictGuard Risk Report

Generated: 2026-06-09T03:30:00.000Z
Data source: simulated
Spot: 70,000 dUSDC
Live Predict server: unavailable

## Summary

The vault has concentrated short YES exposure near 75,000 for the 15m expiry. Buying a smaller OTM YES binary hedge costs about 8.00 dUSDC and reduces the worst simulated loss by 18.1%.

## Workflow Status

- Risk identification: complete (50/100)
- Hedge recommendation: complete
- Demo execution side: YES
- Demo oracle: N/A
- Demo oracle expiry: N/A
- Demo sizing mode: probe
- Wallet execution: pending
- Manager readback: pending
- Lifecycle readiness: pending
- Redeem evidence: not captured
- Redeem history discovery: single evidence fallback
- Active position quantity: N/A

## Metrics

- TVL: 10,000 dUSDC
- Utilization: 42.0%
- Risk score: 50/100
- Max payout liability: 1195.00 dUSDC
- Worst scenario PnL: -509.00 dUSDC
- Largest risk: BTC > 73,000 / 15m

## Live Testnet Context

- Live context not loaded in this report render.

## Scenario Results

| Scenario | Unhedged PnL | Hedged PnL | Tail-loss reduction |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| BTC +5% | -389.00 | -397.00 | 0.0% |
| BTC -5% | 268.00 | 260.00 | 0.0% |
| BTC +3 sigma | -509.00 | -417.00 | 18.1% |
| BTC -3 sigma | 198.00 | 190.00 | 0.0% |
| Vol spike | 397.90 | 389.90 | 0.0% |
| Near-expiry upside shock | -82.00 | -90.00 | 0.0% |

## Executed Stress Comparison

- Source: latest-wallet-execution
- Executed hedge: N/A
- Worst unhedged PnL: -509 dUSDC
- Worst executed PnL: N/A
- Worst-case improvement: N/A

| Scenario | Unhedged | Recommended | Executed | Executed reduction |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| BTC +5% | -389.00 | -397.00 | N/A | N/A% |
| BTC -5% | 268.00 | 260.00 | N/A | N/A% |
| BTC +3 sigma | -509.00 | -417.00 | N/A | N/A% |
| BTC -3 sigma | 198.00 | 190.00 | N/A | N/A% |
| Vol spike | 397.90 | 389.90 | N/A | N/A% |
| Near-expiry upside shock | -82.00 | -90.00 | N/A | N/A% |

## Hedge Recommendation

Buy 100 YES notional at strike 75,000 for expiry 15m. Estimated cost: 8.00 dUSDC.

## On-Chain Execution

### Sizing Evidence

- Sizing mode: probe
- Quote source: none
- Quote freshness: unavailable
- Ask price input: N/A
- Quote note: No usable ask price is available, so PredictGuard falls back to a fixed small probe quantity.

- No wallet-signed Predict mint has been executed in this browser session.
- Latest verified testnet evidence is tracked in the project evolution log.

## Manager / Account Summary

- Direct manager inventory readback not loaded.

- No local manager execution history available.

## Settlement Accounting

- Status: no-manager
- Explanation: Manager inventory has not been loaded yet.
- Total positions: 0
- Active positions: 0
- Expired positions: 0
- Zero-quantity positions: 0
- Redeemed positions with linked evidence: 0
- Positions missing evidence: 0
- Minted quantity: 0 dUSDC
- Mint cost: 0 dUSDC
- Current quantity: 0 dUSDC
- Redeemed quantity: 0 dUSDC
- Redeemed payout: 0 dUSDC
- Claimed payout: 0 dUSDC
- Unclaimed payout: Unknown
- Realized hedge PnL: N/A
- Unresolved quantity: 0 dUSDC
- External executor redeems: 0
- Accounting scope: none
- Note: full settlement accounting uses bounded discovered redeem history plus local mint history. It is stronger than a single digest, but still not a production indexer.

### Redeem History Discovery

- Redeem history discovery did not run; report is using single evidence fallback.

## Lifecycle / Redeem Evidence

- No PositionRedeemed evidence has been captured in this browser session.
- Current lifecycle readiness is read-only and based on manager position status.

### Redeem PTB Preview

- Target: 0xf5ea2b3749c65d6e56507cc35388719aadb28f9cab873696a2f8687f5c785138::predict::redeem
- Mode: owner-redeem
- Readiness: blocked
- Signing enabled: no
- Position: N/A N/A
- Quantity: N/A
- Lifecycle: N/A
- Oracle status: N/A
- Oracle matched: no
- Oracle quoteable evidence: no
- Oracle settled evidence: yes
- Vault settled evidence: unavailable
- Redeemability: blocked
- Manager: N/A
- Oracle: N/A
- Guard Wallet owns manager: pending - Connect the manager owner wallet to prove owner redeem authority.
- Guard Redeem candidate: pending - No decoded non-zero position candidate is available.
- Guard Non-zero quantity: pending - Position quantity is not available.
- Guard Expiry reached: pending - Expiry is not available from the decoded MarketKey.
- Guard Oracle quoteable: pending - No matching oracle summary is loaded for this candidate.
- Guard Vault settled evidence: pending - Waiting for vault settled-oracle evidence.
- Guard Wallet signing: pending - Signing is intentionally disabled until a live redeemable test path is validated.
- Evidence note: No matching oracle summary was found in the current Predict server snapshot.
- Evidence note: Vault settled-oracle evidence has not been loaded for the candidate position yet.
- Missing: PredictManager inventory readback, decoded non-zero position candidate
- Note: redeem preview is intentionally read-only until redeemability checks and live validation are complete.

## Assumptions

- Sample data is deterministic and simulated for the first demo path.
- Binary YES pays when settlement is above strike; NO pays when settlement is at or below strike.
- Vol spike scenario uses a simplified mark-to-market stress, not a full SVI repricing engine.
- Hedge selection is a risk reduction heuristic, not financial advice or a profit guarantee.